Is new energy a cake or a new energy bubble - TDMoIP Manufacturer - TDMoIP Manufacturer

  The new energy is raised relative to traditional energy concept, referring to the beginning of development and utilization of, or are actively looking to be the promotion of energy such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal energy, nuclear fusion energy, hydropower and ocean energies. Compared with traditional energy sources, new energy mostly in the renewable clean energy, with less pollution, the characteristics of large reserves, therefore, in the traditional resource depletion and environmental pollution facing the growing today, the strategic significance of new energy and economic significance without saying that Yu.

But the market uncertainty over the future direction and policies of the uncertainty for industry, investors cautious standstill. In fact, many new energy companies have felt the financial pressure, not only investments with a significant reduction in the wind, and even bank credit is also due to "excess capacity" in the shadow of the new energy enterprises will be cautious and a number of provinces and municipalities have also deferred their new energy planning, pending further research argument.

New Energy and Industrial whether it is true or false excess surplus? Placed in front of investors, whether it is cake or a bubble?

Industry, promising a matter of fact, the new energy industry a bright future prophetic, from the following set of data which is not difficult to understand the enthusiasm of government and business investment: According to the U.S. S & P 500 index's 10 industry analysis of data shows that in the past 50 years, the net rate of the energy sector is the highest, with an average annual return rate of nearly 13%. In the four years 2004-2008, the global clean energy investment in growth of 417 percent. investment adviser in the latest release of "2009 -- 2012 China Renewable Energy Market Investment Analysis and Forecast Report "shows that in 2004, the global clean energy investment in the field of 300 billion U.S. dollars. 2006, 925 billion U.S. dollars in 2007 surge 60% year on year, more than 148 billion U.S. dollars. In 2008, though experiencing an unprecedented financial crisis, but the total investment reached 155 billion U.S. dollars still. September 4, 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission published the "Renewable Energy and long-term development plan," proposing that by 2010 renewable energy consumption to reach 10% of total energy consumption by 2020 to reach 15% of the development of??. This gives the market a new energy future is full of anticipation. "At present, the scale of China's solar energy industry has been ranked first in the world, wind power and photovoltaic power generation capacity are also among the best, emerged out of a group of outstanding enterprises, such as Emperor Ming, Suntech, gold wind, etc., benefits are Well, the year in 2008 and this year's richest man, Zhengrong Shi, a new chart of the richest man Wang Chuanfu are also new sources of energy take a ride. "National Development and Reform Commission, said Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute. "At present, the most promising enterprises and the capital is still the field of solar and wind energy, which started relatively early, technology is more mature, richer resources, the market better, these three aspects determine the inputs are more market risk even smaller, so-called wave energy, geothermal energy concepts such as the development of technology is possible, but to actually be put to capital formation in the industrial chain will take time. "

Indeed, in recent years, China's solar energy development at an alarming rate and has revealed a certain degree of industrialization of space. Although solar power costs 2-3 yuan, much higher than other energy sources, but with the installation of PV systems prices decreased year by year, the decrease in cost will directly drive the growth in demand.

Wind power generation is also outstanding, the installed capacity from 1995 to 38,000 kilowatts in 2008 to 12.15 million kilowatts, ranking the world's first 4-bit, wind power costs and the cost of the nearest thermal power, and has the industry chain and scale advantage. China's total reserves of wind energy can be developed about 4.35 billion kilowatts, which could land on the development and use of reserves of 6-10 million kilowatts of wind energy, offshore wind energy reserves of 1-2 million kilowatts, an enormous wind reserves in the future with sustainable wind power industry prospect, attracting many investors.

"Bubble theory" be rational look at a few days ago, public letter to the Department of Development and Reform Commission in the "2009 Report of China's industrial economic operation in summer," pointed out, solar, wind and other emerging industries duplicate construction, launched a very serious disorder. As of first half of 2009, in support of various policy measures around the country said it would be "to build a new energy base" of the province had more than 17. Among these provinces, a considerable part of the plan has not been fully demonstrated, accompanied by, is the formation of a large number of production line equipment for horses, as well as wind, photovoltaic power station competing enclosure.

However, the Chinese Ministry of Science and recently completed an internal report on the new energy industry, "excess capacity" was that called into question. Science and Technology research results show that, the media and official letters are planning mining capacity, a far cry from the actual production capacity. Projects under construction may be due to issues such as the size of the cost of shutdown, plans production will be due to changes in market supply and demand relationship will be with the funds, market demand, the cost of which a considerable part of it will run aground. These are the figures reflected the reality failed to meet the supply. The current polysilicon business more than 50, for example, actually able to produce more than just 10 of polysilicon, polysilicon production capacity this year just 1.5 million tons, the actual demand is for less than the.

Meanwhile, the part of the surplus was due to the blind item on the low-end manufacturers as well as the chain do not match each end result, rather than the actual excess capacity. Restrictions promulgated by the state policy is not a new energy development, but ensure that they are more healthy way to move forward, "enterprises or investors may be key components in the wind energy production, maintenance service system for industrial chain links, and more looking for investment opportunities."

"There are a lot of people suspect that the investment value of new energy sources that the new energy industry overcapacity, there is a bubble. Excess of the basic law of market economy, there is no excess of market system is a planned economy distribution system. Surplus is a prerequisite to competition, there is no competition who engage in technological progress? so surplus is an important source of scientific and technological progress, is a normal market phenomenon. Of course, companies are not too stupid and insist the excess was a mess when it comes do not sell and have tried the production . "Li Junfeng that" each industry has a commercial speculation, but the energy market is different from the real estate, the stock market bubble of the opportunity to small, piece of clothing can be sold for 10 yuan can also be s 1 million, but the one kilowatt Sell 1 yuan, another 10 yuan sold right? energy is more common and popular product, it is necessary in order to really survive the fierce competition, so engaged in new energy is a good thing but it is not an easy thing. "

Eating cake is not easy in fact, in addition to policy and market level, the new energy companies in terms of cost, technology, management and ancillary facilities are also to face many constraints and problems.

At present, the new energy companies to achieve profitability as quickly as possible, mainly to see business-to-construction cost control. The new energy industry still in its initial stage, high operational costs is a widespread problem, due to the higher cost of power generation, electricity price is also higher than traditional energy generation, and therefore not competitive.

Wind Power in China recently established online price 0.51 yuan per kWh to 0.61 yuan, although the prices have been lower than the initial stage of development of wind power a lot, but still the national average thermal power electricity price 0.37 yuan / kwh over. The fledgling PV power generation costs are higher, and even appear in the previous tender 0.69 yuan / kwh amazing low price, it is difficult to compare with the conventional energy generation. Obviously, the cost does not have the advantage of new energy sources, but also national policy of subsidy. Reducing Costs will undoubtedly become the next new energy business for a long period of time, "compulsory."

"The new energy industry is a high attrition rate of the industry, technology is impeding development of the industry's most important issue." Said Li Junfeng. Development of transport, access and use of the course of the technical barriers encountered have become wind power, solar photovoltaic power generation the greatest obstacle to further development.

To wind power, for example, "As the rapid development of wind power, but the power grid construction is lagging behind, a considerable number of fans unable to grid, the wind turbine can not be put into operation in a timely manner after the power generation resources are wasted." Industry insiders say that at present, still not perfect electricity storage technologies, wind power grid access technology, hoping to short-term wind power and other new energy sources to replace traditional energy sources are not realistic.

In addition, the core technology and core materials, "two out", heavily dependent on foreign imports, the development once the scale is easy to be controlled by others. "This is a common problem of Chinese enterprises. We enjoy the world, the results of industrial civilization, but with a core competence must have innovative core technology." Said Li Junfeng. "Domestic companies such as BYD has invested considerable effort to develop its own core technologies, but also you can say is just beginning. Technological development is very slow, and energy technology is not easy, as the industry continues to mature, this "Xure" symptoms will slowly recede, the entrepreneurs should have such a patient. "

In the new energy industries in China also face infrastructure and public services, the serious lack of capacity problems. For example the development of electric vehicles is now, if the corresponding charging station does not keep up with, the user is also very inconvenient to use them. "Improving the facilities, changing people's consumption habits to adapt to the new energy of life is a difficult thing." Said Li Junfeng.

Although the involvement of SMEs faced difficulties, new energy is still a bright future. December forthcoming United Nations climate conference in Copenhagen and brewing for a long time China's new energy development plan will inevitably boost the market, providing new opportunities. To industry sources, the departments concerned have guidance in the drafting of a low carbon economy, Chinese enterprises should seize the enormous opportunities of new energy industries.

"Now put into much better than before, previously no market, and now a huge market, to see if you can win market share. Enterprises should carefully study the market, which can act, no helping hand may not have access straight sets. , "Li Junfeng," said new energy now in China doing business there are at least five or six thousand companies and enterprises are small and medium scale enterprises, has no special large-scale enterprises, such as Kim has done a relatively good wind is only medium-sized. Although there are some large companies such as GE, Siemens are doing, but the new energy, after all, is an emerging industry, industrial scale is still relatively small, so they give space for a large investment of SMEs, SMEs can take full advantage of its characteristics of a flexible mechanism to speed up new inventions, new technologies, the industrialization process. "

"To enter the new energy industry, companies must be prepared in advance. First we must have investment capital, capital investment need not be great. Goldwind such as the tens of billions of assets of enterprises and investment in the beginning only a few million, industries at different stages of the capital requirements are also different, not superstition major inputs to the construction of large enterprises say. The most important thing is to have a clear direction of development is what you what to do, how to do, this is the most crucial thing, Now the new energy industry can do a lot of things, there are batteries, fans, spare parts and many other directions to choose from, elected in the right direction, there's a good team can do together. "Li Junfeng said that, in active New Energy and Industrial at the same time, we should pay attention to overcoming blindness, "Enterprises should not put new energy sources as a speculative market. While the concept of new energy lot of heated discussions, but the industry itself is not much volatility, companies need to carefully inspect the industry to find the familiar person who could do a very good plan to guide you what to do under these conditions, after careful consideration investment, not to turn on the switch, followed by public opinion, eyes closed lightly puts inside hit. enterprises do not have a good plan is not likely to be successful. "

As the market system not yet been born, so the growth of China's new energy industry will largely depend on the policy, the strong stimulation and input. But there's certain is that the new energy is a block big cake, but how to eat, what to eat when it is worthy of China's new energy business and desire to join the new energy industries, companies think about. For the new energy enterprises, the development of a way out in the final analysis is to develop core technologies, reduce costs and narrow the gap with conventional energy sources, so that businesses see profits, so that the new energy industry and more commercial value. "There is a good sign, in the past to our new energy enterprises do not pay attention to brand building, there is no independent brands, but not independent technology. Now a new energy enterprises gradually began to focus on brand building, the rise of a number of very loud and international brands, as long as the the building of a brand, companies should not worry about, after a decade or two, a good technique to do together, the future of unlimited. "said Li Junfeng.

"New energy, after all, is an emerging industry, industrial scale is still relatively small, so they give a great investment in small and medium enterprises space, SMEs can take full advantage of the characteristics of their own flexible mechanism to speed up new inventions, new technologies, the industrialization process."

New Energy and Industrial Policy Survey "Renewable Energy Law": February 28, 2005 was overwhelmingly approved the development of renewable energy power generation priority Internet access, the full purchase price and the community pooled policy, and the establishment of renewable energy development special fund to support resource survey, R & D, pilot demonstration project construction and rural renewable energy development and utilization of new energy development paved the way for.

"Renewable Energy Law Amendment (Draft)": August 24 this year, the NPC Standing Committee, which is "renewable energy law," the First Amendment.

The draft includes several important changes: China's renewable energy generation will have full access to government financial subsidies, renewable energy generation electricity price management would be further improved. Countries have established the nature of government funds for renewable energy development fund, the source for the state fiscal year the allocation of funds and the imposition of additional renewable energy tariff and so on.

National Renewable Energy Development Fund to support activities include: Renewable energy development and utilization of science and technology combined network research, standards development, testing certification and demonstration projects; rural and pastoral areas of life energy use of renewable energy projects; in remote areas and island of renewable energy independent power system construction; renewable energy resource exploration, evaluation and related information system construction and the promotion of renewable energy development and utilization of equipment, localization of production.

The draft also for renewable energy power purchase in full protective system had been refined: requires national authorities to develop national renewable energy generating capacity of the annual purchase targets and implementation plans to identify and publish on the power grid enterprises should meet the full protection of the acquisition of renewable energy generating capacity of the minimum targets, grid enterprises should acquire not less than minimum target of renewable energy and power grid projects online.

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